paying attention. China. Taiwan. More…

Oh, my. Stop it.

All right. That might not have been my most respectful nor articulate intro, but this is personal to me. And let’s acknowledge right from the get go, that when it’s personal, our passions swell. When our passions swell, we need to be more cautious in any errors of discernment and also recognize we have reason to shortcut any typical, prudent, critical thinking exercises. So let me begin once more.

Oh, my. Could we please be wiser?

Let me also add a further caveat. Sometimes when things aren’t “happening to me,” we minimize what’s actually happening. Sometimes when what’s occurring is 10,000 miles away, we conclude it’s no big deal. We oft conveniently pay more attention to massive manhunts in southern Florida or former royals who seem quite enthused about severing any residual family ties.

Let me not posit that either of the above are unworthy of our attention. My point is simply that what’s happening in the South China Sea is very worthy of our attention. Allow us to thus first provide a very brief summary to provide context, as shared by the Council on Foreign Relations:

  • Taiwan has been governed independently of China since 1949, but Beijing views the island as part of its territory. Beijing has vowed to eventually “unify” Taiwan with the mainland, using force if necessary.
  • Tensions are rising. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, whose party platform favors independence, has rebuked Beijing’s efforts to undermine democracy. Beijing has ramped up political and military pressure on Taipei.
  • Some analysts fear that war between the United States and China could erupt over Taiwan. The United States provides Taiwan with defensive weapons, but leaves the question of whether it would actually defend Taiwan unanswered.

While under every new administration, China seems to test what they can/can’t get by with and what gets/doesn’t get a reaction from American leadership, understand that since the frenzied unfolding of events in Afghanistan two months ago, the situation has become significantly worse.

Two weeks ago, China flew a record number of military jets — 150+ — into Taiwan’s air defense zone — within a four day period, a recognized act of armed aggression. The U.S. State Department released a press statement saying they are “very concerned by the People’s Republic of China’s provocative military activity near Taiwan.” It is destabilizing the region and international relations around the world. Taiwan’s defense minister calls tensions with China the worst in 40 years. To be clear, when the U.S. abruptly exited Afghanistan, the Chinese state news agency, as reported by CNN, “trumpet[ed] the supposed decline of America and taunt[ed] Taiwan with threats of invasion.” 

“The fall of Kabul marks the collapse of the international image and credibility of the US,” said the commentary. “Following the blows of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, the decay of the American hegemony has become an undisputed reality. Its failure in Afghanistan is another turning point in that spiral fall.” In other words, the messaging to Taiwan is that the U.S. commitment to them — and to the rest of their allies — is unreliable.

After the U.S. established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China in 1979, the approach of the U.S. toward Taiwan has been one of “strategic ambiguity.” By law instituted by treaty, the U.S. is committed to sell Taiwan modern arms and equipment, but as for the ambiguity aspect of our approach, they are not bound to respond if China invades. And yet, with all due respect, listen to Pres. Joe Biden’s words…

When the President was asked on August 18th by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos if the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan meant Washington could not be relied upon to come to Taiwan’s defense, Pres. Biden seemed to suggest that was untrue. “We have made — kept every commitment. We made a sacred commitment to Article Five that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with — Taiwan. It’s not even comparable to talk about that.” The next day a senior Biden administration official said “policy with regard to Taiwan has not changed”; multiple analysts of varied partisan leanings said Biden appeared to have misspoken.

Then this week it happened again. At a CNN town hall style meeting Thursday evening, the President vowed to come to Taiwan’s defense if it comes under attack from China. Again, the day after, the White House sought to correct Pres. Biden’s words. No such commitment to help Taiwan exists. Our approach remains ambiguous. 

My passion is that our approach and leadership are simultaneously prudent. With noted aggression, should our policy change? How can our words be more consistent? This continued correction of what we mean and what we don’t is confusing at best.

Did I mention, no less, this was personal? 

I have a kid there.

Let’s be wiser in both our words and response. We care about what’s happening 10,000 miles away.

Respectfully…

AR