a brief discussion about economics, inflation & stupidity

One of the things that gets my goat is when I sense other people thinking I’m stupid. Sorry. “Stupid” is strong language for me; it’s just that it feels so disrespectful. I’m not suggesting that a person can’t disagree nor even think I’m wrong. I’m addressing when a person thinks I’m stupid for thinking differently than they. Case in point…

Over the course of recent months, we’ve been told the following:

“Our economy is the envy of the world!”

“The US economy is humming along.”

“The U.S. economy is the world’s best.”

“The economy is thriving.”

“We can feel great about our economy!”

And yet we don’t. We don’t feel great; it doesn’t feel envious. It doesn’t feel humming or best either. Despite those who wish it so, repeated business resources share a consumer pulse that is deeply frustrated with our economy and not better off than we were four years ago. With such a disconnect, the question is why.

Those who wish us to believe the economic picture is one of strength refer most frequently to a healthy labor market, low unemployment and a continued bull market. Some may refer to the arguable slowing of inflation, but therein lies the misnomer. Allow us to explain.

According to the US Inflation Calculator the annual inflation rate was as follows:

YEAR20172018201920202021202220232024
RATE2.1%1.9%2.3%1.4%7%6.5%3.4%3.5%

Inflation soared after Covid. It soared to a monthly high of 9.1% in June of 2022. It began to decrease 2 years ago, although it remains notably above 2%, which the Federal Reserve identifies as a sign of a healthy economy.

So when we people attempt to convince us how wonderful our economy is, they are omitting relevant data; they are not acknowledging the impact of inflation upon price levels. For after inflation’s spike in March of 2021, the price of goods and services has remained high. For example…

In May of 2020, the average price for an unleaded regular gallon of gasoline was $1.88. Currently in 2024, the most updated average price of gasoline is $3.58 per gallon. 

In 2020 the average price for a pound of ground chuck, 100% beef was $4.79. Today that price is $5.42.

Four years ago, eggs cost $1.45 per dozen. The average price is down from 2023 — when the average cost jumped to $4.82 — but it remains over $3 per dozen today, more than 100% higher.

Milk cost $2.96 in 2020. Today it averages $3.85 per gallon — an increase of 30%.

And let’s not forget about stamps. Four years ago, stamps were 55¢. Today it takes 68¢ to mail a US domestic letter — a 23.6% increase. Prices are significantly higher.

The reality is that even if the labor market is healthy, unemployment is low, and the market remains bullish, the inflated price levels of standard goods and service — from energy to eggs and houses to healthcare — have reduced consumers collective purchasing power. 

So… “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”

When nominee Ronald Reagan posed the question in the final week of the campaign in 1980, little did the watching public know the inquiry would become such a rhetorical, presidential benchmark. There is indeed much to consider. Granted, there is more to consider than economics.

We’re not stupid. 

Respectfully…

AR

to the class of ’24

[This is our annual graduation post. I questioned running it on Mothers Day. And then I realized that one of the things in life I’m humbly most proud of is my adult children, how they’ve grown, and how they’ve embraced so much of the below. Seems, therefore, a perfect time to celebrate this special class…]

* * * * *

Congratulations! Well done! Regardless of your individual path, you have completed something significant. You have persevered. No worries about figuring all of life immediately now out; your goal is simply to take the next step. It’s a big one. It’s beautiful, too. There are also a few things to remember.

Remember, grad… 

For everything there is a season, a time for every activity under heaven…

A time to be born and a time to die. A time to plant and a time to harvest.

A time to kill and a time to heal. A time to tear down and a time to build up.

A time to cry and a time to laugh. A time to grieve and a time to dance… 

As you enter adulthood — even in these current crazy, uncertain times — allow us to address some brief truths as you focus on these few, albeit noteworthy, next steps…

First, there really is a time for everything — every activity under heaven, every season under the sun. To be clear, you will not desire each of these times. Every activity will not be awesome nor every season incredibly joyous nor fun. Don’t let me discourage you; that’s not my intent. My intent is for you to be prepared to wisely wrestle with reality.

Remember that to enjoy and to embrace are not the same thing. As you face life’s next chapters, the truth is that there will be seasons and chapters that stretch you beyond your wildest imagination — beyond where you ever thought you’d go or perhaps ever even wanted. You have a choice in how to respond. Remember that. When the time comes to tear down or turn away, embrace the time; when the time comes to speak, speak — laugh, laugh — and certainly grieve, grieve. Enjoying the season is less important than learning from the experience. The wise one learns and grows from every experience… from the seasons that are hard. Even yes, from now.

Second — and don’t let me shock you — but contrary to any long-held belief or fictional, rhetorical chant, you cannot be whatever you want to be. Sorry. Remember we are wrestling with reality. (Note: I apologize now on behalf of parents everywhere for not always promoting reality either; see Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny, and/or that jolly old St. Nick).

The reality is you (we) cannot be whatever/whoever you want to be (ie. see the many who’ve thought they should be President). You can, though, be all that God created you to be. How?

Embrace your gifts. Utilize the unique wiring within you — the wiring that makes you distinctly, uniquely you. Don’t compare yourself to another, falling prey to society’s hollow teaching that another person’s wiring or set up is somehow better or worse than yours. Simply embrace your own strengths and grow from your weaknesses. Seek God first; seek his intention for your life; find your greatest identity in being his kid. Then be who he created you to be, and do what he created you to do. Don’t compare your calling to any other. It will never be lesser. Whatever you do, do it well. 

And third — perhaps because I’m more verbose than I wish to admit — allow me to humbly offer our traditional, brief, rapid fire of final encouragement — those final things we parents wish to say once more as we pass the blessed baton into adulthood…

Love deeply. Extend grace generously. Never view grace and truth as opposites, as each should be applied in full measure. Wash your sheets. More than twice a year. Don’t be selfish. Resist any quickness to anger. Be fast to forgive. Be humble. Forgive again. Pursue wisdom. Don’t judge any by the color of their skin. Don’t judge period. Know the difference between judgment and discerning right from wrong. Learn from others. Learn from the different. Don’t be torn down by lesser things. Don’t think that the different means wrong. Nor offensive. Expand your mind. Stay in the conversation. Be slow to find offense. Stay put. Stay put when it’s hard. Consider coffee. Limit sugars. Find the wisdom and joy in both fasting and feasting. Be intentional in enjoying a good donut. Be intentional with more. Take an interest in others. Be sincere. Separate the reds from the whites. Including the wine. Be charitable. Save some. Spend some. Give some away. Don’t be afraid of sorrow. Put down the device. Watch your screen time. Be cautious with social media. Talk to people. Don’t quicken to offense. Chew with your mouth closed. Don’t think of equality with God as something to be grasped. Listen to the elderly; touch them. Invest in the young. Bow. Curtsy. Open doors for other people. Be unselfish. Do it again. Don’t keep count. Don’t make it about you. Show respect — in what you say and how you think. Remember that respect does not mean accepting as equally good and true. Remember that all things are not equally good and true. Know when to say that; know when to not. Look another in the eye. Use your napkin. Be discerning. Be aware that just because something feels good, it might not be wise. Be prayerful. Figure the faith thing out. And embrace each and every season shared above. Embrace the time to laugh. Again and again. Cry. Grieve. And yes, dance. Always dance.

There is a time for everything. Still and especially now. Don’t let any current circumstance make you doubt the hope and the future God has planned for you. He has a plan. And it is good.

Congrats, grads! It’s your time to dance. Enjoy as we so celebrate you.

To the Class of 2024…

AR

aging well

Joe Biden is the oldest American president at 81 years of age. He is the ninth oldest national leader in the world. Donald Trump is “only” 77, still placing him in the top 20 should he return to the Oval Office. Third party and presidential wannabe RFK Jr. is seemingly just a babe at age 70. Regardless, it is no secret; the plethora of Americans want someone not only different but also younger. We are skeptical about the octogenarian or near-octogenarian’s fitness for the job.

And so we ask: is age just a number?

Let’s examine the numbers a little further, quoting Pew Research in an updated account, examining key facts about the ages of current national leaders…

  1. National leaders range in age from their mid-30s to 91. The youngest leader is Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré, who is 36. He only slightly edges out two fellow 36-year-olds, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa and Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić. Only two other world leaders are in their 30s: Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris and Chilean President Gabriel Boric. The oldest national leader is President Paul Biya of Cameroon, who was born in 1933 and took office more than 40 years ago. Biya is the only current national leader in his 90s.
  1. The median age of current national leaders is 62, as of May 1, 2024. The largest share of global leaders today (34%) are in their 60s. Roughly a quarter (22%) are in their 50s; 19% are in their 70s; and 16% are in their 40s. Biden is among the 5% of leaders who are in their 80s.
  1. Countries that are less free tend to have older leaders. In countries that Freedom House classifies as “not free,” the median age of the national leader is 68. That compares with 62 in countries that are classified as “partly free” and 60 in countries classified as “free.” The United States is one of only three countries that are classified as free and have a leader age 80 or older; the other two are Ghana and Namibia. In Ghana, President Nana Akufo-Addo recently turned 80 in office. And in Namibia, 82-year-old Nangolo Mbumba took over as president earlier this year following the previous leader’s death in office at age 82.
  1. The median age for women leaders and men leaders is the same. Among men who are world leaders, 3% are in their 30s, while no women leaders are in this age group. Yet, of the 14 women leaders currently in power, 29% are in their 40s, compared with 14% of leaders who are men. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen of Denmark is the youngest female leader at 46, followed closely by fellow 46-year-old Kaja Kallas, the prime minister of Estonia. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh is the oldest female leader at 76.
  1. In most countries, the leader is significantly older than the median member of the population. For example, the median American is 38, according to UN population projections for 2024, while Biden is more than twice as old. In fact, the only countries that have a leader who is younger than the median resident of the country are Montenegro, Ireland and Italy. Andorran Prime Minister Xavier Espot Zamora, at 44, is the same age as the median Andorran resident. In general, countries that Freedom House classifies as free are more likely than those classified as partly free or not free to have leaders who are closer in age to the median resident of the country.”

With only 180 days until the election (insert an exasperating sigh here), I thought an age examination might make us feel better.

But then I realize, it’s not just the number; it’s not just the sum of 8 distinct decades. It’s the combination of these candidates.

Praying for wisdom. Praying for discernment. With absolutely all due respect, praying, also, for how this election impacts our country when our choice is sincerely, unfortunately so disappointing and poor. Hopefully this will jumpstart us into better candidates in the future.

Yes, indeed, age is more than a number.

Respectfully…

AR

understanding the protests; do the protestors understand?

This week we watched continued protests on the college campus. Before we address the main point of today’s post, let’s provide factual context…

As the Israel-Hamas war moves into its seventh month, encampment protests have erupted on multiple college campuses in support of Hamas, calling for schools to divest from Israeli companies and the US to sever ties with Israel. The protests began at Columbia University over two weeks ago but have since spawned up elsewhere, notably disrupting multiple graduation ceremonies. The protests initially seemed predominantly peaceful, but have become increasingly more violent. They have also been filled with antisemitic behavior. Let us thus ask some relevant questions…

First, who are the protestors?

The protestors are Palestinian supporters involving students, faculty and outside activists. New York City Mayor Eric Adams said this week that over 40% of those who participated in Columbia and City University of New York protests were not actually from the school.

Next, do the protestors understand who Hamas really is and what they actually believe in?

Hamas was designated as a foreign terrorist organization under Pres. Bill Clinton’s State Department in 1997. This means that they use violence or the threat of violence in the pursuit of political objectives. Their goal is to create a Palestinian state in place of Israel. They do not support a two-state solution or a permanent cease fire because they do not want Israel to exist. Hence, they do not support peace. 

They also do not support LGBT rights nor often, even their existence. They executed one of their own accomplished military commanders in recent years for reportedly having sex with another man. There are multiple reports Hamas attempted to keep this secret, as they recognize it would pierce their popularity and derail global support.

How then is wise to handle the protests?

It’s tricky, we know. And I think we are seeing leadership examples that are effective and not.

I really respect the aforementioned Mayor Adams. He has been clear and firm and articulate in calling the protests what they are. He has called “hate,” “hate,” and even in recent days aver that Columbia and other private colleges should contribute to the cost of needing the NYPD to curtail the protests; the taxpayers shouldn’t have to foot the bill for intentional vandalism. He is holding those responsible accountable.

Also solid has been University of Florida President Ben Sasse. The school made swift arrests when protests broke out in Gainesville, giving the protestors many days and multiple warnings first to cease their illegal activity. Said Sasse: 

“This is not complicated: The University of Florida is not a daycare, and we do not treat protesters like children — they knew the rules, they broke the rules, and they’ll face the consequences…”

One of the more ineffective stabs at leadership comes from those who attempt to address antisemitism and Islamophobia at the same time with equal emphasis in this situation. Let’s be clear; these are not Islamophobic protests, and reports of such have been distinctly few and far between. Just like when “black lives matter” was the relevant focus, “all lives matter” wasn’t an appropriate retort; the focus was on how the black community was negatively affected. To call out antisemitism and Islamophobia is an inaccurate assessment of what is currently happening, and is therefore, most likely, an attempt at appeasement or maintaining popularity.

Friends, we will absolutely advocate for the respect of all people, and our respect is not dependent on agreement. But we will also not refrain from asking tough, insightful questions… and for calling something what it is and what it is not.

Respectfully…

AR

80 for April

Tired of the news? Don’t trust the news you actually do hear? Believe it’s biased to the point of being untruthful?

We can’t omit the bias, but we can learn lots by sorting through what people have been talking about. Because the question mark is our favorite punctuation piece — because it’s the only mark that actually invites a response — below is what people were asking in the month that was. We took the first 80 Q’s we observed; you’ll note they come from sources left, right and pretty much everywhere in between. I’ve bolded ten that heightened my curiosity…

  1. A Bipartisan House?
  2. A Turning Point for American Foreign Policy?
  3. Abortion or Inflation: Which Will Matter More in 2024?
  4. Accountability Coming for Trump at Last?
  5. After Nearly 1,400 Campus Arrests, How Will Prosecutors Handle Charges?
  6. Are Americans Really So Divided?
  7. Are Democrats Stuck With Biden?
  8. Are Iran’s Nine Lives Nearing an End?
  9. Are US politics undergoing a racial realignment?
  10. Can Biden Attract Independent Voters?
  11. Can Biden Keep the Black Vote?
  12. Can Biden Revive the Fortunes of American Workers?
  13. Can Down-Ballot Races Lift Biden to Victory in 2024?
  14. Can Political Theorists Be Trusted?
  15. Can We Fix a Culture Hostile To Raising Children?
  16. Compassion or Hatred? What’s Motivating Protesters on College Campuses?
  17. Could Trump Unlock Longer-term Republican Presidential Success?
  18. Dems Turned Colorado Blue. Can GOP Win It Back?
  19. Did Mike Johnson Just Get Religion on Ukraine?
  20. Did Trump Just Get Lucky With His NYC Juror Pool?
  21. Did the U.S. Solicitor General Mislead SCOTUS?
  22. Disorder on Border: What Were They Thinking?
  23. Do Our Leaders, ‘Experts’ & Pundits Want World War III?
  24. Does Abortion Ruling Put Florida In Play?
  25. Empathy Was Biden’s Superpower in 2020. Will It Be Again?
  26. Famine in Gaza?
  27. Hillary To Students on Gaza: Can We Talk & Not Shout?
  28. How Much Is a Dead Jew Worth?
  29. How Woke Is Too Woke?
  30. Ignore the sticker price: How have college prices really changed?
  31. Is a Biden Comeback Underway?
  32. Is Bad News for Biden ‘Rosy Retrospection’ or Just Fact?
  33. Is Biden Losing Pennsylvania?
  34. Is College Still Worth It?
  35. Is Special Counsel Jack Smith An Emperor Who Wears No Clothes?
  36. Is the U.S. Government Ready for Another January 6?
  37. Is Trump Nostalgia Enough?
  38. Is Trump Really Leading in Battleground Pennsylvania?
  39. Is Trump Really Making Big Gains With Black and Latino Voters?
  40. Question for a Reparations Advocate: What Is Enough?
  41. Should Justice Sotomayor Retire?
  42. Some Colleges Will Soon Charge $100,000 a Year. How Did This Happen?
  43. Should Kamala Harris step aside as Joe Biden’s running mate?
  44. The Intifada Comes to America. Now What?
  45. The Return of Stagflation?
  46. Top companies are on students’ divest list. But does it really work?
  47. Trump, Biden ‘Darn Near Even’. Where Will the Race Go? 
  48. Trump Denies Elections, But Biden’s the Threat to Democracy?
  49. Voters don’t like Biden’s economy — but why?
  50. War By Affirmative Action?
  51. What academic penalties could the 44 arrested student protesters face?
  52. What Are Americans’ Top Foreign Policy Priorities?
  53. What Are the Stakes of ‘Civil War,’ Really?
  54. What Is Hamas Thinking Now?
  55. What Is RFK Jr.’s Pitch to Voters?
  56. What Should Be Done About the Gender Pay Gap in Sports?
  57. What Will Netanyahu Do Now?
  58. What Would Lincoln Do?
  59. What’s Behind Campus Protesters’ Calls For ‘Divestment’ From Israel?
  60. What’s Next After the Ukraine Mistake?
  61. What’s next for Caitlin Clark?
  62. When do college protests become criminal?
  63. When Is Racial Stereotyping Acceptable?
  64. Who are Trump’s potential VP picks?
  65. Who is Caitlin Clark’s Boyfriend?
  66. Who Is Running for President in 2024?
  67. Who’s on Trial, a Former President or a Mob Boss?
  68. Why Are Voters Worried About Biden’s Age?
  69. Why Did Cars Get So Expensive?
  70. Why Does America Have Religious Liberty?
  71. Why Have Abortions Risen in the US?
  72. Why Is America Vastly Expanding Its Surveillance Complex?
  73. Why Is Trump Barred From Discussing Cohen & Daniels?
  74. Will Biden Let Israel Finish Off Hamas?
  75. Will Black Voters Back GOP?
  76. Will Doing ‘the Right Thing’ Cost Speaker Johnson?
  77. Will Gen-Z Cancel America?
  78. Will the Gaza War Decide the 2024 Race?
  79. Will Prosecutors Charge Pro-Palestinian College Protestors?
  80. Will There Be a Presidential Debate This Fall?

Just asking questions. But allow me one more, maybe my favorite: “Who said it: Biden, Trump or someone from ‘The Bachelor’?”

(My apologies… that was from March…) 🙂

Respectfully…

AR

[Intramuralist note: sources include but are not limited to ABC News, AMAC, The American Conservative, American Greatness, American Reformer, The Atlantic, Boston Globe, Brookings Institution, CBS News, CNN, DC Examiner, Epoch Times, The Federalist, Financial Times, Guardian, The Hill, Huff Post, The Liberal Patriot, Los Angeles Times, MSNBC, New York Magazine, New York Sun, New York Times, The New Yorker, Newsweek, People, NPR, Pew Research Center, Real Clear Politics, Slate, Substack, Tablet Magazine, Tipp Insights, UnHerd, The Unknowns, USA Today, US News & World Report, Wall Street Journal, Washington Free Beacon, Yale News, and 538.]